Minggu, 29 November 2009

BS Shrapnel

Forecasters to the real estate industry, BIS Shrapnel, are in the media today with a prediction that rents will increase 20 per cent over the next three years.

At the Brown Couch we are not in the business of making predictions, but we are blessed with the power of hindsight. Let's look back to what BIS Shrapnel were predicting for 2009 this time last year...

"In Sydney, the number of new medium and high density dwellings being completed is forecast to fall to a 20 year low in 2009, pushing the vacancy rate to below one per cent,” explains [BIS Sharpnel Managing Director, Robert] Mellor. “Rental properties will remain in short supply, and the national average rental growth is forecast to rise to 10 per cent in 2009, up from the current rate of 8.2 per cent, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics rental index.”

10 per cent. Over the year to September 2009, Sydney rents actually went up 6.6 per cent (the national figure is a little lower - 6.2 per cent). BIS Shrapnel was out by a factor of 50 per cent.

Tricky business, forecasting.

(Asterix and the Soothsayer.)